View on the Market
We Remain Where We Were
TLDR: Bitcoin maintains volatility in the 55k-72k range. July ended without major changes. August and September historically negative for BTC and ETH. October tends to be positive. Caution and long-term focus recommended. CommonSense works on reducing volatility in portfolios.
As we mentioned in our previous report, it continues to be a season where patience must be exercised to the extreme.
Despite the strong correction that occurred in early July, with a drop in BTC close to 55k, this was neutralized again, with the price returning to the 65k zone, where it seems to be its equilibrium point, at least from a March-to-date perspective.
We believe it's important to highlight the volatility we've experienced within the range from 55k to 72k. We're talking about nothing less than a +26% volatility for that period, which shows that, while cryptocurrencies have reduced their volatility from a long-term perspective, they continue to maintain strong volatility if we measure it in reduced periods.
The reasons for this volatility have been multiple, from the German government selling BTC they had seized, to Trump saying he would promote a Bitcoin reserve for the United States. Whatever the reason, and volatility aside, not much has really happened during July.
That's why at CommonSense we work on all our portfolios to reduce volatility, which is mainly the biggest fear that investors face. As we always say, our goal is to turn crypto investment into a walk in the park, instead of a roller coaster.
What to Expect in August?
August is historically a "bad" month for Bitcoin with a median of -6%, followed by September with a median of -5.58%.
The good news is that October has historically been a great month, with a median of +27%.
If we pay attention to seasonality then, August and September can be excellent months to make entries into digital assets and benefit from the October rise.
If we look at Ethereum, we'll see a fairly similar historical behavior, with negative medians in August and September, and positive in October.
Even so, we continue to exercise caution and patience. We're here playing the long-term game.
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