View on the Market

Feb 9

Back to December Prices

TLDR: After a quiet start to the year and a return to early December 2023 price levels, the crypto market remains optimistic, especially with the April Halving event anticipated to drive significant movements. Indicators suggest a bullish future for Bitcoin, projecting a $35k minimum support price by 2025. This signals a prime opportunity for long-term investments, notably in altcoins that have outpaced Bitcoin recently. The "Halving Spiral" chart predicts a steady price increase around Halving events, promising potential long-term gains amidst short-term fluctuations.

The year has kicked off quietly for the cryptocurrency sector, with initial excitement following the Bitcoin ETF launch in the US market quickly dissipating. Despite an early surge that saw Bitcoin (BTC) reach $48,000, the market has since relinquished nearly all gains from mid-December and early January. As a result, prices have stabilized back to early December 2023 levels.

However, the outlook remains optimistic. The crypto market's sideways movement is uncertain in duration, yet the anticipation of the Halving event in April is expected to catalyze significant market dynamics. This period presents an opportune moment for investment, considering the risk/reward balance.

Our analysis forecasts a supportive price floor for Bitcoin at no less than $35,000 by 2025, highlighting the current price range as an attractive entry point for medium to long-term investors. Portfolio adjustments towards assets with greater upside potential are already underway.

Altcoins, in particular, have demonstrated superior performance compared to Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Despite Bitcoin's dominance in 2023, altcoins are poised to offer exceptional growth opportunities in 2024. The forthcoming Halving is projected to follow historical patterns, as indicated by the "Halving Spiral" chart, suggesting a continued upward price trend within specific ranges before escalating further post-Halving.

Historically, periods following Halving events have significantly benefited the crypto sector, albeit with gradual development, typically peaking a year later.

Therefore, the current market phase is deemed an excellent entry point for investors seeking adjusted risk for potential high returns. While short-term volatility and corrections are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains promising.

Alpha One Update:

Month to Month* +0.46%

Year to Date* +0.46%

Since Inception** +58.89%

We have started 2024 with a modest +0.46% for January, but it is an excellent performance when compared to our benchmark's -5.34%.

In situations like these, the more conservative strategies included in this portfolio bear fruit by reducing volatility.

We have made the first major adjustment of the year, including a new strategy we have been working on for over a year. Within your dashboard, you can see the CommonSense Index 30, a proprietary development capitalization index that seeks to capture the market trend in a diversified way. We will soon make a post explaining its operation, for those who are interested in delving deeper.

Edu Forte,

CEO and Co-Founder.